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Some Important Reflections on Post Covid Scenarios


I have already written several articles on what we can expect, these are just some additional ideas that I am writing here because I don't want to get them lost.

- In Beijing and Shanghai, where factories have been back to work for over one month, car traffic has returned to normal levels during the week while not at weekends. It means that after the reopening (after Easter? Early May?) people will have some difficulty and reticence to leave the house, go to restaurants, go shopping, etc. We will have to attract them.

- As proof of this, H&M China has reopened all its stores since the beginning of March, but reports that sales are still down 60% compared to the previous year.

- Americans estimate that the recovery in China will really happen in the last quarter, therefore October, November and December.

- All countries in the world will fear foreigners and keep their borders closed just to avoid returning infections after having fought so long to eradicate the virus. It means that international tourism as well as business travel will be significantly affected.

- The updated estimate for the drop in Italian GDP in 2020 is -12%, with a recovery of 8% in 2021. It is estimated that 30% of restaurants can close and not reopen.

- Covid actually constitutes an acceleration of processes that have ALREADY been in place before the virus appeared. Companies that were strong before the crisis, in general, will tend to become even stronger, while companies in distress will tend to miss further blows. If you think about it, thanks to Covid, Amazon has strengthened its leadership compared to retailers, Facebook has further increased its market share compared to traditional media. The home delivery which was a growing trend in catering, thanks to Covid has become even stronger. Companies like Macy's that were already going badly previously, will lose further ground. In the USA it is estimated that there will be a great loss of restaurants not affiliated with chains (they are unable to deal with real estate owners, they do not have the marketing strength, the guarantees of the parent company, etc.) and that their locations will soon be occupied by chain-affiliated premises. The big franchise chains will take advantage of the small one.

In general therefore: even if initially affected THE STRONG WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER while the weak will have to play force to join the strong or re-set his strategy.

- Another interesting detail comes from the USA where the procedures for the dismissal of staff are much more immediate: the greatest loss of jobs occurred between non-graduate or non-highly specialized people which is like saying: those who have very strong competence also manages to retrain in the course of a crisis, but those who do not have it or who had very limited competence see their jobs at risk.

There are several voices who begin to describe 2020 as a year in which we will have to hibernate and be able to operate at a minimum, until the moment in which, having definitively defeated the virus, we can return to life.